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Also got Tam Lin Gawain after I finished my latest reendition of trauma for the SS AU
Yeah idk. I have the entire Fairy Kingdom staff now tho. no skill mats tho 'cause I don't farm very well nowadays lol
Arknights probability analysis coming probably the day after tomorrow!
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Btw is it just me or is YouTube really ramping up the 2-ads-in-a-row thing? Coupled with them being too long too
And the new annoying design for the progress bar on the bottom too (@YouTube - don't think I don't notice how this is your way to try to get the viewer to stare at the ad's proximity and/or stay on the page to skip lol)
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Love how whenever something IRL happens I'm like "Ah yes I resonate with the deeply sated Chinese poet's desire to be a hermit"
I definitely think I have no problem just mostly admiring scenery and writing/drawing all day. In fact I think that'd be pretty ideal. No alcohol though, that's where I start disappointing the ancestors lol
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I eat 2 cheese sticks a day to keep the lactose intolerance away
Btw the other day I learnt that apparently there's a term called "sinodonty" which just means that people of Chinese descent just tend to have a specific dental pattern. For instance, the back of the upper incisors are kinda shovel-shaped, and they tend to be not as well aligned with the other teeth.
I then spent some time looking at my teeth, and I don't have the alignment issue (and no I don't have braces), but the shovel shape is definitely there. Which is cool. I thought everyone's teeth looked like that. Ig that just means I didn't spend enough time staring at teeth.
I'm always interested in stuff like this, 'cause I have some suspicion that some of my ancestors were from further away, and some of the traits that came from that side of the family clearly run counter to some Chinese traits (specifically a gene related to swelly sweat). The lactose tolerance is an example of something that feels a bit out-of-par, since the vast majority of Chinese are apparently lactose intolerant and ik my mom's family seems to be pretty tolerant of it.
I'm gonna have to stare at my mom's teeth at some point lol (this is super interesting to me)
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Randomly got bowled over by the thought of the Not-Quad Squad going camping
The fact that Raez would love it while the rest just absolutely hate it lol (guess whose idea it was?). Wiley and Dion sulking in their tents even though there are marshmallows while Rai stares vacantly into the distance asking where is his computer.
It was funny already, but what really made me bowl over was the fact that I've been thinking a lot about the SS AU, and the reactions would literally be the same. Just this group of people capable of reaching light speed who Do Not Want to be out in the wild. And this one dude who got himself a scorpion friend and has started a bonfire for it with baked drumsticks
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Vilhelm: Sir why are we here again
Dion: I don't k n o w
Mitsuharu: (*possibly asleep under the mask, either that or he went catatonic*)
Raez: Hey guys wanna go catch some fish from the river (:
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Chat if he comes to me in the gacha when I have 119/120 shards for him and have spent the last month or so waiting to scratch him out of the abyss, does he love or hate me DEATHMASKKKK
Unexpectedly I am here to report the result of 110 pulls, but from SSA rather than Arknights
I got: Deathmask, Aiolos (fluffy hair supreme), Poseidon (the explanation behind this one is legit the guy I drew yesterday), Aiolia (I drew SS!Dion like 3 times yesterday), and God Cloth Seiya, so basically out of 110 pulls I got 4 S characters and one SS, which tbh is not what I thought would happen.
See, insane hair commentary works
But anyways Deathmask happened the first multi and I am still flabbergasted. Bro was waiting the whole time for the ultimate troll
My flex of the day:
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I really liked OF-ST5.
Actually I accidentally just speedran the entire event story today lol.
But anyways, really neat. I do feel like there is a very specific type of nostalgia that's reserved for places. But what if that place is a country? I can't quite relate with that sort of grand notion, but I do miss places that I've called home, and I think people who love their countries just have that on a grander scheme. That's probably why some of them go to some extremes. Everyone likes keeping their hand on what goes on in their homes, after all.
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Also wrestled 14-21 Adverse today and nearly went insane. I did pass it in the end tho, so that's good.
Definitely short on sanity now (I retried it like 60 times)
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The long-awaited, statistically-inaccurate probability analysis that no one asked for (:
but actually I am just curious lol. Doing this to indulge myself
Total rolls on this banner: 112
5-stars obtained: 12 (not counting free copy of Fang the Fire-Sharpened), 11 (not counting guaranteed 5-star on first multi)
6-stars obtained: 2
For the 5-stars, I had an average probability of 11/112 (excluding the guaranteed operator as mentioned), which is around 9.82%. The probability of getting a 5* per roll is around 8%, which lines up with me feeling like I get pretty lucky with 5-stars, but also doesn't line up all that well because. yeah. It's statistically insignificant or something but I appreciate 'em anyways lol
I did not log the number of 4* and 3* potentials that I got lol. Let me know if you want me to do this in the future please do not, or else I'll have to start logging every single pull to know what happens at every number of rolls and uhhh
Biggest result is full potential Fang Alter (one obtained from 75 of the token currency and not counted here, but 5/12 of the 5-stars were her)
That more or less aligns with the 50% probability of me getting Fang Alter if the rarity of the Operator is 5-stars. See, that's 41.67%. But this is not really accurate since every 5* roll result is determined separately. Again, this is an average look for fun. Onto the 6-star results
The default rate of obtaining any 6-star is 2% (it increases every 50 rolls, and I definitely got a 6-star every 50 rolls, so I don't think the rate ever increased to 4% in the process. However, I did not log the roll counts so it's possible one of the 6-stars was influenced by this. I do not think it did tho)
2/112 makes for a mean 1.79% rate of a 6-star acquisition for me, though this is statistically inaccurate because (I believe) every roll is mostly determined independently. In other words, every roll is a coin flip, excluding the guaranteed 5-star-or-above rarity operator from the first multi.
Now, both 6-stars acquired were not Logos or Wis'adel (spooks basically), and neither were they Specter Alter/Texas Alter/Muelsyse. So basically combining the fact that Logos and Wis'adel were supposed to account for 70% of the odds when rolling a 6-star, coupled with the 2% drop rate of 6* Operators, yields a 0.6% probability chance that I'd get a 6* who was not Logos or Wis'adel each time (and this is statistically correct because it treats the results as separate)
Banner information says that Specter Alter/Texas Alter/Muelsyse have a "other character drop rate [30%] 5x rate boost", which I'm not completely sure the meaning of, but for now I'm just gonna guess that when you don't get the 70% outcome above (Logos or Wis'adel), you're supposed to be 5 times more likely to get one of these three compared to anyone else. That yields an approximately 83.35% chance of getting one of them when getting a non-Logos/Walter 6* result, and ofc a 16.65% chance of not getting any of the above. As mentioned, I didn't get any of them three either for each 6* result, which means that in addition to the 0.6% probability chance mentioned above, I obtained a result that had a 0.099% chance of happening each time I got one of those 6*s, just considering how rate-up was set up.
I will then consider the full list of 6-star operators who were available on this banner. Their number totals 53. That means that for me getting Penance specifically (since she was on my wishlist), I'd have a 1/53 (1.89%) chance of getting her from a 6-star roll with no rate-up. Coupled with the above probabilities influenced by rate-up, me being able to acquire her specifically from the list of 53 6* operators was effectively a 0.00187% chance that manifested in reality.
Love you too Penance (and you Mountain lol)
Addition: Notice 3 elaborates somewhat on the 5x rate boost, saying that the probability of obtaining other 6* operators (except Wis'adel and Logos) "decreases proportionally until" the probability of obtaining Specter Alter/Texas Alter/Muelsyse is 5x the rate of obtaining other 6*s (again, not Logos or Walter). But that just means that I have no way of knowing what the rate is at any given point since it follows some kind of progression path that isn't disclosed. So just assume the actual odds of getting a 6* who aren't any of the on-rate-up limited 6-stars is slightly higher than what I have calculated, assuming that I'm doing my probability math correctly anyways, which is kinda a big assumption lol
I like math (:
Anyone who's taken statistics, feel free to correct me lol, I just feel like just feeling lucky or unlucky every gacha is kinda...well let's just say I like doing this xD it's fun.
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I still find it funny that both Arknights and SSA have weird rate-ups for me though lol, like for instance today Asmita was on rate-up. Do you see an Asmita? You do not.
I'm pretty sure the only rate-up Saint I've ever gotten from SSA is Kardia, and then he came again on non-rate-up. Everyone else just backs away from me. Slooowly
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It feels like Windows 10 came out yesterday, but suddenly Microsoft is making it defunct?
Yeah this feels really exploitative lol. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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